5 Mar
1995
5 Mar
'95
6:02 p.m.
Below is the abstract of a forthcoming target article on:
THE BASE RATE FALLACY RECONSIDERED
by
Jonathan J. Koehler
This article has been accepted for publication in Behavioral and Brain
Sciences (BBS), an international, interdisciplinary journal providing
Open Peer Commentary on important and controversial current research in
the biobehavioral and cognitive sciences.
Commentators must be current BBS Associates or nominated by a current
BBS Associate. To be considered as a commentator for this article, to
suggest other appropriate commentators, or for information about how to
become a BBS Associate, please send email to:
bbs(a)ecs.soton.ac.uk or write to:
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
Department of Psychology
University of Southampton
Highfield, Southampton
SO17 1BJ UNITED KINGDOM
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An electronic draft of the full text is available for inspection by
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instructions that follow after the abstract.
____________________________________________________________________
THE BASE RATE FALLACY RECONSIDERED:
DESCRIPTIVE, NORMATIVE AND METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Managemant Science and Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Behavioral Decision Making Faculty
Austin, Texas 78712-1175
koehler(a)mail.utexas.edu
ABSTRACT: We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in
probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and
methodological standpoint. First, contrary to the conventional
wisdom, a thorough examination of the literature reveals that base
rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends
on task structure and internal task representation. Second, few
tasks map unambiguously into the simple, narrow framework that is
held up as the standard of good decision making. Third, the
current approach is criticized for its failure to consider how the
ambiguous, unreliable and unstable base rates of the real world
should be used in the informationally rich and criterion-complex
natural environment. A more ecologically valid research program is
called for.
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