28 Jan
2014
28 Jan
'14
10:03 a.m.
REMINDER:
The CEU Department of Cognitive Science cordially invites you to a talk
(as part of its Departmental Colloquium series)
by
Laurence T. Maloney,
Psychology and Neural Science, NYU
Date: Wednesday, January 29, 2014 - 17:00 - 18:30
Location: Department of Cognitive Science, CEU, Frankel Leó út 30-34.,
Room G15
Estimating and representing uncertainty in perception and action
The key difficulty in making decisions is the uncertainty about the
outcomes
that could result from any particular decision. In classical decision
making under risk the
uncertainty is explicitly given as probabilities: a 50% chance of $100
or else nothing. In a
wide range of biologically important tasks, though, the organism must
estimate the
uncertainties associated with outcomes. The sources of uncertainty can
be perceptual,
motor, or environmental. Estimation can be based on simple frequency
counts or explicit
models – as when we assume that a coin is fair despite never having
tossed it.
Surprisingly, human performance in such tasks is often close to
optimal
(Trommershäuser et al, 2008; Warren et al, 2012) despite the added
burden. I will
describe a series of studies that let us examine how we estimate
uncertainty in a variety
of perceptual, motor and cognitive tasks.
There is considerable evidence that humans systematically distort
estimates of
uncertainty in making decisions and any complete description of how we
estimate
uncertainty must explain such errors. I’ll present a model that
captures how we distort
frequency in decision tasks and experimental evidence testing it.
We're looking forward to see you there (Frankel Leo u. 30-34) !
Cognitive Science Events at CEU: http://cognitivescience.ceu.hu/events
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