Dear Dr. Qwerty,
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TITLE: Base-rate Respect: From Ecological Rationality to Dual Processes
AUTHOR: Aron K. Barbey and Steven A. Sloman
ABSTRACT: The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One
arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of
uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality.
In this paper, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both
kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their
conceptual coherence. We will conclude that the best account of the data
should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment that attributes
base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately
represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when
problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in
terms of nested sets of individuals.
KEYWORDS: Base-rate neglect, Probability judgment, Bayesian reasoning, Dual
process theory, Nested set hypothesis
FULL TEXT:
http://www.bbsonline.org/Preprints/Barbey-06052006/Referees/
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Please DO NOT respond to this email. If you wish to submit a proposal for
commentary and/or suggest potential commentators, please go to the new
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* If you only wish to suggest potential commentators, please ignore prompts to
submit a proposal with expertise information.
* If you experience technical difficulties, please email bbs(a)bbsonline.org.
* Please respond to this Call no later than March 12, 2007
NOTE: Behavioral and Brain Sciences (BBS) is an international,
interdisciplinary journal providing Open Peer Commentary on important and
controversial current research in the biobehavioral and cognitive sciences.
Commentators must be BBS Associates, or suggested by a BBS Associate. If you
are not a BBS Associate, please follow the instructions linked below:
http://www.bbsonline.org/Instructions/associnst.html
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Paul Bloom - Editor
Barbara Finlay - Editor
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
bbs(a)bbsonline.org
http://www.bbsonline.org
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