Department of History and Philosophy of Science Eotvos University Budapest, Pazmany P. setany 1/A PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE SEMINAR (http://hps.elte.hu/seminar) ________________________________________________ 8 October 4:00 PM 6th floor 6.54 (Language: English, except all participants speak Hungarian) L a s z l o E. S z a b o Theoretical Physics Research Group of HAS Department of History and Philosophy Science Eötvös University, Budapest A Physicalist Interpretation of Probability There is no such property of an event as its "probability." Rather, I argue that probability is a derivative concept, supervening on physical quantities characterizing the state of affairs corresponding to the event in question. The term "probability" can be used only collectively: it means different dimensionless [0,1]-valued physical quantities (measures) in the different particular situations. I also argue that probability is not the limiting value of relative frequency, and not even necessarily related to the notion of frequency. In some cases, the conditions of the sequential repetitions of a particular situation are such, however, that the probability (the corresponding physical quantity) is approximately equal to the relative frequency of the event in question. Sometimes we do not know the value of the physical quantity X, corresponding to the probability of an event A. In this case, if we are convinced about the relationship between X and the relative frequency of A, we can measure X by counting the relative frequency of A. Furthermore, I will argue that probability, as a derivative concept, has nothing to do with (objective) indeterminism and, on the other hand, has nothing to do with "lack of knowledge," even if world is deterministic. The organizer of the seminar: László E. Szabó -- Laszlo E. Szabo Department of Theoretical Physics Department of History and Philosophy of Science Eotvos University, Budapest H-1518 Budapest, Pf. 32, Hungary Phone/Fax: (36-1)372-2924 Home: (36-1) 200-7318 Mobil/SMS: (36) 20-366-1172 http://hps.elte.hu/~leszabo