Kedves Tanar Ur!
Ezuton szeretnem tudatni veled es minden erdeklodovel, hogy
marcius 22-en es 23-an Barbara Partee eloadast tart Budapesten.
A 22-i eloadas a Collegium Budapestnel lesz 11 orakor.
Cime: Aspect and Quantification in English and Czech.
(Absztrakt erkezik egy kulon uzenetben.)
A 23-i eloadas a Nyelvtudomanyi Intezet konyvtaraban lesz
14 orakor.
Cime: Topic-Focus and Quantification.
A ket nap valamelyiken szeretnenk kotetlen (kiscsoportos vagy tete-a-tete)
beszelgeteseket osszehozni Barbaraval.
Minden erdeklodot szeretettel varnak a nyelveszek es Bende-Farkas Agi
(mb. szervezo)
Kedves Korabbi erdeklodok, sajnaos csak mostanra lett meg a Popper
dolgozat.
Akit meg a mar lezajlott vita utan is, csak ugy szakmailag erdekel,
betettem az izabell serverre
g\pub\visegred.95\popper.5 neven, DOS allomany, mely erdetileg
WP.5.0
Udv Pleh Csaba
Below is the abstract of a forthcoming target article on:
THE BASE RATE FALLACY RECONSIDERED
by
Jonathan J. Koehler
This article has been accepted for publication in Behavioral and Brain
Sciences (BBS), an international, interdisciplinary journal providing
Open Peer Commentary on important and controversial current research in
the biobehavioral and cognitive sciences.
Commentators must be current BBS Associates or nominated by a current
BBS Associate. To be considered as a commentator for this article, to
suggest other appropriate commentators, or for information about how to
become a BBS Associate, please send email to:
bbs(a)ecs.soton.ac.uk or write to:
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
Department of Psychology
University of Southampton
Highfield, Southampton
SO17 1BJ UNITED KINGDOM
To help us put together a balanced list of commentators, please give
some indication of the aspects of the topic on which you would bring
your areas of expertise to bear if you were selected as a commentator.
An electronic draft of the full text is available for inspection by
anonymous ftp (or gopher or world-wide-web) according to the
instructions that follow after the abstract.
____________________________________________________________________
THE BASE RATE FALLACY RECONSIDERED:
DESCRIPTIVE, NORMATIVE AND METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Managemant Science and Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Behavioral Decision Making Faculty
Austin, Texas 78712-1175
koehler(a)mail.utexas.edu
ABSTRACT: We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in
probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and
methodological standpoint. First, contrary to the conventional
wisdom, a thorough examination of the literature reveals that base
rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends
on task structure and internal task representation. Second, few
tasks map unambiguously into the simple, narrow framework that is
held up as the standard of good decision making. Third, the
current approach is criticized for its failure to consider how the
ambiguous, unreliable and unstable base rates of the real world
should be used in the informationally rich and criterion-complex
natural environment. A more ecologically valid research program is
called for.
--------------------------------------------------------------
To help you decide whether you would be an appropriate commentator for
this article, an electronic draft is retrievable by anonymous ftp from
ftp.princeton.edu according to the instructions below (the filename is
bbs.koehler). Please do not prepare a commentary on this draft.
Just let us know, after having inspected it, what relevant expertise
you feel you would bring to bear on what aspect of the article.
-------------------------------------------------------------
To retrieve a file by ftp from an Internet site, type either:
ftp princeton.edu
or
ftp 128.112.128.1
When you are asked for your login, type:
anonymous
Enter password as queried (your password is your actual userid:
yourlogin(a)yourhost.whatever.whatever - be sure to include the "@")
cd /pub/harnad/BBS
To show the available files, type:
ls
Next, retrieve the file you want with (for example):
get bbs.koehler
When you have the file(s) you want, type:
quit
These files are also on the World Wide Web and retrievable with
Netscape, Mosaic, gopher, archie, veronica, etc. The URLs are:
http://cogsci.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/bbs.htmlgopher://gopher.princeton.edu/11/.libraries/.pujournalsftp//ftp.princeton.edu/pub/harnad/BBS/bbs.koehler
----------
Where the above procedure is not available there are two fileservers:
ftpmail(a)decwrl.dec.com
and
bitftp(a)pucc.bitnet
that will do the transfer for you. To one or the
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bitftp will then execute for you).
-------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Wed, 1 Mar 95 23:53:40 -0500
From: langconf(a)louis-xiv.bu.edu (BU Conference on Language Development)
CALL FOR PAPERS
*************************************************************************
The 20th Annual
Boston University Conference on Language Development
November 3, 4 and 5, 1995
Keynote Speaker: Lila Gleitman, University of Pennsylvania
Plenary Speaker: Lydia White, McGill University
**************************************************************************
FIRST AND SECOND LANGUAGE ACQUISITION
All topics in the field of language acquisition will be fully considered,
including:
Bilingualism Literacy
Cognition & Language Narrative
Creoles & Pidgins Neurolinguistics
Discourse Pragmatics
Exceptional Language Pre-linguistic Development
Input & Interaction Signed Languages
Language Disorders Sociolinguistics
Lexicon Speech Perception & Production
Linguistic Theory (Syntax, Semantics, Phonology, Morphology)
Abstracts submitted must represent original, unpublished research.
Presentations will be 20 minutes long, plus 10 minutes for questions.
PLEASE SUBMIT:
1) six copies of an anonymous, clearly titled 450-word
summary for review
2) one copy of a 150-word abstract for use in conference
program book if abstract is accepted; (if your paper is
accepted, you will be asked to resubmit your 150-word
abstract in electronic form, either on diskette or by
e-mail. Requests for these program abstracts will be
sent with acceptance letters.)
3) one 3 x 5 card stating:
i) title, ii) topic area, iii) audiovisual requests, and
iv) for EACH author:
a) Full name & affiliation d) Summer address & phone
b) Current address & phone e) Summer e-mail address
c) E-mail address f) Fax number
Please include a self-addressed, stamped postcard for acknowledgment
of receipt. Notification of acceptance or rejection will be sent by
late July. Pre-registration materials and preliminary schedule will
be available in late August 1995.
All authors who present papers at the conference will be invited to
contribute their papers to the Proceedings Volumes. Those papers will
be due in January, 1996.
Note: All conference papers will be selected on the basis of abstracts
submitted. Although each abstract will be evaluated individually, we will
attempt to honor requests to schedule accepted papers together in group
sessions.
DEADLINE: All submissions must be RECEIVED by May 1, 1995.
Send submissions to:
Boston University
Conference on Language Development
138 Mountfort Street
Boston, MA 02215 U.S.A.
Telephone: (617) 353-3085
E-mail: langconf(a)louis-xiv.bu.edu
info(a)louis-xiv.bu.edu (automated reply)
(WE REGRET THAT WE CANNOT ACCEPT ABSTRACT SUBMISSIONS BY FAX OR E-MAIL.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
We are pleased to announce that Cascadilla Press will be publishing
the proceedings of the 19th annual Boston University Conference on
Language Development, which was held this past November, 1994. The
proceedings will be published in two volumes in March 1995, and will
contain 58 papers, including the keynote address by Andrew Radford and
the plenary address by Jill de Villiers. A portion of the revenues will
go to help the conference.
The price of the volumes is just $42.00 plus shipping. Shipping is as
follows:
SURFACE MAIL (slow) AIR MAIL (fast)
US: $3.00 US: $5.00 Canada: $7.00
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the following order form to Cascadilla Press:
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Standing orders are also welcome for the BU Proceedings. By placing a
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If you would like your library to add the BU Proceedings to their
collection, please let them know! They may not yet know that the
proceedings will be available, or that their patrons would like to
find the proceedings in their holdings.
Az MTA Nyelvtudomanyi Intezetenek 1995 marcius havi esemenynaptara
7. kedd 13.30 Bp., I., Szinhaz u. 5--9., II. emelet 218., konyvtar
SZILAGYI N. SANDOR (Kolozsvar): Kognitiv szemantika
es nyelvi vilagmodell
17. pentek 11 ora Bp., I., Szinhaz u. 5--9., II. emelet 218., konyvtar
SEREGI LAJOS: A Lektor szamitogepes programcsalad
leirasa es nyelveszeti tanulsagai -- Kandidatusi
ertekezes munkahelyi vitaja
22. szerda 11 ora Collegium Budapest, -- Bp., I., Szentharomsag u. 2.
BARBARA PARTEE (USA): Aspect and Quantitification
in English and Czech: Markedness & Meaning Shifts
23. csutortok 14 ora Bp., I., Szinhaz u. 5--9., II. emelet 218., konyvtar
BARBARA PARTEE: Topic-Focus Structure and Quantifica-
tion
28. kedd 14 ora Bp., I., Szinhaz u. 5--9., II. emelet 218., konyvtar
KOVACS ZSOLT -- SZABO T. ADAM: Az Erdelyi Magyar Szo-
torteneti Tar szamitogepes (CD-s) valtozata. --
Felhasznalasi lehetoseg a finnugor eredetu testresz-
neveink kutatasaban